Cigital, the largest consulting firm specializing in software security and quality, recently released the "Statistical Analysis of Texas Hold 'Em" study. This study shows the outcomes of Texas Hold 'Em poker games were determined by skill more often than by chance and provides the raw data from the observed games.
The effect of luck in Texas Hold 'Em is a subject of much debate in the legal community. In the US, the laws that define "gambling" vary from state to state. Many legal jurisdictions apply a "dominance test" such that if the outcome is predominantly determined by chance, then the game is considered to be gambling. The results of this study are sure to assist members of the poker community with ongoing legal challenges to protect the game from being categorized as gambling.
"This study uses an unprecedented amount of real data to demonstrate what players have long known: the decisions they make are the dominating factor influencing the outcome of the game," said Paco Hope, Technical Manager from Cigital and lead author of the study.
The study co-authored by Sean McCulloch, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Dept. of Mathematics and Computer Science, Ohio Wesleyan University, examined 103 million hands of Texas Hold 'Em poker played at PokerStars in December 2008. More than 75 percent of the time, the game's outcome was determined with no player even seeing more than his/her own cards and the community cards. Of Nearly 25 percent of cases that saw a showdown, only half of those were won by the player who could make the best 5-card hand. The other half of the showdowns were won by someone with an inferior 5-card hand because the player with the best 5-card hand folded prior to showdown.
To review the full study please visit http://www.cigital.com/resources/gaming/poker/
